My research explores how environmental change, natural resources, and ecological disruption shape peace, conflict, cooperation, and human well-being. While much of my work focuses on war and post-war settings, I also examine how climate and environmental change influence governance, trust, cooperation, and health across a range of contexts.
I organize my work around four broad themes:
War, environment, and human impacts
A central strand of my research examines how war damages infrastructure and ecosystems, and how those disruptions in turn affect individuals and communities. I am particularly interested in behavioral outcomes — how people cooperate, trust, and care for one another under and after wartime environmental stress. This includes work on altruism and cooperation, political and social trust, and health, especially mental health. Current projects in this area focus on the consequences of war in Ukraine, including environmental devastation and its effects on citizen trust, as well as a long-running project on conflict-induced water shortage.
Climate change, governance, and health
Beyond war settings, I study how climate variability and environmental change shape governance, cooperation, and population health. This includes collaborative work on the health impacts of temperature extremes and hydroclimate compound events, as well as research on how climate-related disasters affect social trust. A recent project explores the social impacts of climate extremes in Colombia.
Water sharing and management
Water runs through much of my research as a connecting thread. I am interested in how water is shared and contested at multiple scales — from international river basins and treaty negotiations, down to institutional arrangements and interpersonal behavior. Current work in this area includes a project on the potential of AI for international water dispute management and earlier policy-oriented work bridging water research and governance.
Environment, conflict, and cooperation
My earlier work — and a continued interest — addresses the foundational question of when and why environmental scarcity and climate change lead to conflict versus cooperation. This research highlights that outcomes depend on context, including governance structures, group identities, and spatial and temporal dynamics. This theme informs the forecasting and early-warning work I contribute to through the VIEWS program.
Ongoing and recent projects
Principal investigator:
CONVERGE: Fostering resilience amid converging crises. CAT Program (Constructive Advanced Thinking), Netias, 2026–2030. With P. Vesco, K. Petrova, E. Rosvold, and I. Rudolfsen.
Disasters, Response and Trust: Social Impacts of Climate Extremes in Colombia. Climes Seed Grant, 2026–2027. With U. Lundin Glans and J.D. Duque-Salazar.
War and Water: Coping with Conflict-induced Water Shortage. Swedish Research Council (VR), 2022–2026.
Environmental devastation and trust among Ukrainian citizens experiencing war. Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA), 2024–2025. With T. Ide, E. Skoog, R. Moskotina, and H. Bartusevičius. Completed.
FlowForward: From Research to Policy. Geneva Water Hub, 2024–2025. Completed.
Co-PI:
A human-centered perspective on the consequences of war in Ukraine. Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies, 2026–2030. Main applicant: E. Skoog, with H. Bartusevičius, R. Moskotina, J. Kunst, and J. Palik.
Dynamic Adaptation to Temporally compound hydroclimate Extremes (DATE). FORMAS, 2024–2027. Lead: E. Raffetti.
Contributor:
Cooperate or compete? Potentials of deploying AI for international water dispute management. Swedish Research Council (VR), 2026–2030. PI: A. Swain.
The impact of air temperature variability on population health in a changing climate. Swedish Research Council (VR), 2026–2030. PI: E. Raffetti.
Welcome reception? The local sources of refugee inclusion and cooperation. Swedish Research Council (VR), 2025–2028. PI: K. Klaus.
Adapting to temperature extremes (PRoMEThEUS). Forte, 2025–2028. PI: E. Raffetti.
Societies at Risk (VIEWS). Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, 2022–2027. PI: H. Hegre.